Jump to content


Photo

What do you know about the financial world?


  • Please log in to reply
396 replies to this topic

#381 DarthRemark

DarthRemark

    Lieutenant

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 596 posts
  • Coat of arms
  • Platinum Marshal

Posted 22 January 2018 - 01:35 AM

Hmmm, Darth, maybe it's right to get behind this...

You and I have always said the crisis is coming, so why not make the best of it?

 

Not sure what you mean here exactly.  Defaulting is morally wrong and to be avoided.  But I'm sure Trump has at least considered it.  The fact is that Congress doesn't want to balance the budget.  If they don't, default is unavoidable.  It's just math.  We're in a quandry.  Trump needs a path out and that might have to involve default.  It's ridiculous to blame him for the current situation though.   
 
I'm impressed by your knowledge of American TV.  I guess they show everything over there too.  :)
 
Not sure what memo you're referring to.  Trump can't order his political opponents to be jailed.  We'll see if Sessions or Mueller come up with anything.
 
btw: I rarely read this thread because I don't have enough knowledge to comment on all your graphs.  I only did today because I haven't seen QB in a while and noticed she posted.  Seems like her post belonged on the Trump thread anyway. ;) I think I'll keep further commentary on the Trump thread.


#382 Lonello

Lonello

    General

  • Honorary members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,226 posts
  • Coat of arms
  • Gold Marshal

Posted 22 January 2018 - 12:36 PM

The graphs look terribly scary, Darth. Trust me. Just take a look at them if you dare. They are more scary then your avatar...

 

They show Trump is not to blaim as he had nothing to do with QE 1,2,3,4... but they do predict he's at the end of the line now, the final BOOM. The catalysator that spirals out of control, it's the manic phase which is shown extremely well with Bitcoin, remember, where you needed 10.000 from to get 2 pizza's just a few years ago. 10.000 Bitcoins with 10.000 each (was even 20.000 shortly ago) does now represent 100.000.000 dollars so I expect you can buy a bit more than 2 pizza's with that amount. But who knows if that is still the case after the Crisis :huh: :blink:

 

PS
It was The Memo they tried to push so hard to be released this weekend and was to show Clinton should be jailed... about the theory the FBI internally hid evidence. But then came out it were the Reps themselves to write the memo: https://www.rawstory...ing-to-release/


Lo

#383 queenbee1

queenbee1

    Major

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,144 posts
  • Coat of arms
  • Gold Scout

Posted 23 January 2018 - 01:02 AM

 

That's rich, QB.  Trump didn't put us here and he's trying hard to fix it.  The fact is that defaulting may very well be the way we have to go.  Do you really think we're ever going to repay $20T?  If we do it won't be in the lifetimes of anyone on this board today.

 

The only way we turn it around is to grow and cut.  We're getting growth.  Now it's time for the other.  Be part of the solution.  Get behind the cuts.  Do you think Schumer cares about righting our finances?  You think he even cares about the Dreamers?  He doesn't care about anything but stopping Trump.  It's all politics right now.
 
Your hate blinds you. 

 

Darth you crossed the line IMO. When I read this comment I was highly offended. As a result feel free to ignore me in the future and I will do the same. Anyone who thinks that the US can default on its debt doesn't understand the implications. It would crater the world economy. TPTB will never allow it. It is naive to even consider it.

 

Let me close in saying that your continued support of Trump regardless of the circumstances shows that you cannot see him clearly. He is a buffoon, a racist and a sexist. I cannot imagine what he got away with in the past that didn't make the news, but all of that is dismissed as fake news by all his supporters. Your lack of understanding how finance works shows your ignorance on this subject. Stay in the Trump section.

 

In case anyone didn't do the research the Social Security Trust Fund is the largest holder of worthless US debt. We are the frog who does know he is in a pot of slowly boiling water. The rest of the world knows this and I certainly don't hate Trump. I simply find him disgusting and egotistical. The electorate who voted for him thought that one man could change Washington and the course of history. It can't be done.

 

FYI the reason I was gone so long is that I got the flu and the worst kind. Two weeks of utter hell with trips to the ER (due to being a high risk) and multiple visits to the doctor. I am on my 16th day and still don't feel well. Considering this, I will take another break from the Forum if I come back at all.

 

Many very powerful people have gone down since women finally stood up against the powerful. They all got what they deserved IMO regardless of political affiliation. Men have been beating and using women since the caveman days. Now the US is changing for the better.

 

This was my topic and now I pass the torch to Lonello.

 

The U.S. debt is $20 trillion. Most headlines focus on how much the United States owes China, one of the largest foreign owners. What many people don’t know is that the Social Security Trust Fund, aka your retirement money, owns most of the national debt. How does that work, and what does it mean?

The Debt Is in Two Categories

The U.S. Treasury manages the U.S. debt through its Bureau of the Public Debt.

 

The debt falls into two broad categories: Intragovernmental Holdings and Debt Held by the Public

Intragovernmental Holdings. This is the portion of the federal debt owed to 230 other federal agencies. It totals $5.6 trillion, almost 30 percent of the debt. Why would the government owe money to itself? Some agencies, like the Social Security Trust Fund, take in more revenue from taxes than they need. Rather than stick this cash under a giant mattress, these agencies buy U.S. Treasurys with it.

By owning Treasurys, they transfer their excess cash to the general fund, where it is spent. Of course, one day they will redeem their Treasury notes for cash. The federal government will either need to raise taxes or issue more debt to give the agencies the money they will need. 

Which agencies own the most Treasurys? Social Security, by a long shot. Here's the detailed breakdown as of December 31, 2016. This article was written at the end of 2017.

Who owns the national debt.



#384 DarthRemark

DarthRemark

    Lieutenant

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 596 posts
  • Coat of arms
  • Platinum Marshal

Posted 23 January 2018 - 06:39 AM

The graphs look terribly scary, Darth. Trust me.

Yes, I'm investing in bullets and Krugerrands.  They'll be worth something no matter what happens.  :) 

 

 

It was The Memo they tried to push so hard to be released this weekend and was to show Clinton should be jailed... about the theory the FBI internally hid evidence. But then came out it were the Reps themselves to write the memo: https://www.rawstory...ing-to-release/

I heard a little about this but haven't paid it much attention.  I tend to tune some of these things out as there's so much noise.  Important stuff will come into focus soon enough.  It's no big deal that Republican's assembled it as it's supposed to be a compilation of information from various sources.  If it's true is what's important.  I guess we'll see.
 



#385 DarthRemark

DarthRemark

    Lieutenant

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 596 posts
  • Coat of arms
  • Platinum Marshal

Posted 23 January 2018 - 06:49 AM

Darth you crossed the line IMO. When I read this comment I was highly offended. 

Not sure what I said to offend you.  I thought we had crossed past that sort of thing.  :)  Truly, I do regard you as a friend.  But as long as you post hate-filled rants I'm going to call you on it.  :)

 

If you don't think a default has been considered you're being naive.  Sure it would be catastrophic.  All I'm saying is that I'm sure it's been considered and doing so doesn't make Trump a monster.  I'm sure Obama considered it.  DoD named the debt as the largest national security threat years ago.  That alone will tell you that millions have been spent projecting how various scenarios might play out.     
 
However, I am impressed that you think I should refrain from this thread while apparently you are qualified to post here. Maybe you can explain how we continue to spend in the hole and avoid default. 

 

Let me close in saying that your continued support of Trump regardless of the circumstances shows that you cannot see him clearly. 

And I've never done this.  What I have done is refuse to accept mischaracterizations and lies.  First he's a buffoon, then he's a racist, then a sexist, a bad businessman, a Russian agent, a thief, a fraud, incompetent, neophyte, insane, has heart disease, maybe a rapist...  No, I don't believe it.  I'm sick of the politics of personal destruction.  Our nation doesn't have time for it anymore.  We need solutions now and I don't care if they come from an imperfect man like Donald Trump.  I'm sure if he's dirty Mr. Mueller will take him out.  Barring that, we need to get to work.

I hope you feel better soon.  
 


Edited by DarthRemark, 23 January 2018 - 06:51 AM.

  • Fks likes this

#386 Lonello

Lonello

    General

  • Honorary members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,226 posts
  • Coat of arms
  • Gold Marshal

Posted 23 January 2018 - 11:31 AM

Yes but Darth... you were the one saying that you didn't trust Mueller... so that adds to the very thing you blaim Queenbee now for calling him out, as the two opposite poles. I mean you sticking by Trump -whatever he does- and she calling him out for -whatever-. I am glad that you seem to have found some trust in Mueller lately though, after I showed you even Trump commented he had trust in him. And you now say you want him to be the judge of the Memo... so this is a good way to start. If anyone knows the FBI it's him so he'll find that Secret Society within I'm sure.

You did cross the line though with calling her a hater. I get why that would be offending to someone. But if you read what we are actually all saying in this thread, from gkaros to tableplay to me to the both of you, it isn't much different and you're right we're all perfectly qualified to comment in this thread. We get this:

 

worthless US debt. We are the frog who does know he is in a pot of slowly boiling water. The rest of the world knows this and I certainly don't hate Trump.

 

doesn't make Trump a monster.  I'm sure Obama considered it.  DoD named the debt as the largest national security threat years ago.  That alone will tell you that millions have been spent projecting how various scenarios might play out.     

 

I think we can all get behind this. Obama was faced with that 10 trillion so he knew something had got to give at some point. Yet he managed to escape. He dodged the bullet at the 20 trillion. With the plan launched yesterday for infrastructure Trump will be at 23 combining the taxplan already... on spending alone! I am not even considering the gradual raise of the debt here. Or the jump the debt will get with another war (f.e. NK, or something around Israel where today Pence announced the Iran deal is off).

 

Remember that Georg W. gave over the 10 trillion because of his warmongering, then Obama faced a very serious financial crisis which caused the 20 trillion and now it's all spiraling out of control. The WEF yesterday had a big warning (you're right, Queenbee, women on top here with LaGarde ;) ). They alarmed rates were going up. So where Obama has been lending for free... actually got money in return FOR lending, this will be completely different for Trump. He wil get as hard choices as the Greek already had been making with the last crisis. He'll be attending the world WEF meeting shortly I hear.

 

A funny graph from the WEF was this:

 

DUKzMx2XUAELc9M.jpg

Sand!!

What again were your bullets, Darth? I know bullion ofcourse, but bullets, do you have golden bullets for your 401k gun or something ;) ?

 

Anyway, you better buy some sand. This is such a funny graph... but it also shows that the US is finished and Asia wildly upcoming. Nobody invests in America anymore but Asia is booming. The shocker for the Americans is still to come... as Queenbee said, it's a frog in boiling water... the Americans are still wildly attacking eachother, with now Fks going on 60 million of his countrymen... deport them all, I say ;). Continue the infights and China will overrun you even faster :ph34r: :ph34r: :ph34r: :blink: :wacko: :P


Lo

#387 DarthRemark

DarthRemark

    Lieutenant

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 596 posts
  • Coat of arms
  • Platinum Marshal

Posted 24 January 2018 - 02:31 AM

lol.  The jury's out on Mueller.  He's clearly exercised bad judgment though.  But I'm confident he'll get Trump is there's a there there.

 

You did cross the line though with calling her a hater.

How is that crossing a line?  Anyone reading any number of QB's posts would draw that conclusion.  I know English isn't your primary language.  From the Google dictionary:  Hate: intense or passionate dislike.  QB's response: "I don't hate, I simply find him disgusting".  lol.  That's a distinction without a difference.  And I do like QB.  Seriously.  

 

But if you read what we are actually all saying in this thread...it isn't much different 

I think we all agree the US is in danger of fiscal collapse.  We need to do something about it and that doesn't mean continuing what we've been doing. American's need to work together which is why I have little tolerance for partisan politics these days.  We could use some help from our European friends too.  I don't mean buying our debt.  I mean shaming our politicians to balance our budget! :)  If we fall we'll feel it the worst, but our pain will reverberate.  We're all in this together.  In that sense the global economy is good.  It's in everyone's interest to keep it going.  

The infrastructure bill has yet to fly.  I've no doubt it will if Trump really wants it.  All of the Dems will approve and enough Republican's will go along.  I strongly oppose it though.  I oppose any additional spending at all.  So much to QB's chagrin, I don't support everything Trump does or wants.  :)
 
And yes the exception is the $18B wall but that's a rounding error in our budget that can easily be recovered in many ways.  For example, it's been estimated illegals tax our services by $100B/yr, so the wall pays for itself PDQ viewed that way. 
 
There won't be another land war.  We can't afford it.  We might nuke NK though.  ;)
 
Don't write America off just yet.  Apple isn't bringing $250B back because they think it will evaporate.  It's coming back because the tax rate is attractive to business.  It will be interesting to see how many follow.  I think we're lower than your country now so you might lose Starbucks!

 

Continue the infights and China will overrun you even faster 

You're right, we do need to come together.  I've been saying that since entering these threads many months ago.  A house divided against itself can't stand. 
 
btw:  "The Memo" is heating up over here.  I was paying cursory attention but it's seized the news for the last day or so.  I've got to admit it sounds pretty damning.  If it's true people are going to jail. 

Edited by DarthRemark, 24 January 2018 - 02:31 AM.


#388 queenbee1

queenbee1

    Major

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,144 posts
  • Coat of arms
  • Gold Scout

Posted 07 February 2018 - 11:44 PM

Rather than reward workers, executives are rewarding shareholders…and themselves. And here is what is wrong with the incentive structure for American executives. Because they receive the vast majority of their compensation from share options, executives are much more focused on pushing the share price up than with the long term welfare of all stakeholders. Not only are they spending less on traditional capex (i.e. plant and equipment) even though borrowing costs are near 5000 year lows and profit margins are high (see chart 5), they have been running deficits (i.e. borrowing money) to cover both capex and share buybacks.

 
Indeed, the last two times the corporate sector was bingeing to the same degree, the economy was on the verge of a recession.
 
So here we have the vast majority of consumers just about managing and in some cases stretching themselves through increased borrowing in order to carry on consuming so that GDP grows. Corporate America is choosing to leverage their balance sheets in order to boost share prices (and executive compensation), rather than increase salaries and invest for future growth. On the current course, we cannot see how these two trends continue. Surely it is a question of time until something breaks.
Of course, the theory of Trump’s tax plan is that corporate America will take the funds available from repatriation and lower tax rates, and use the cash to create jobs. Well, unless the tax code changes the incentive structure of executives away from share buy backs, we doubt very much that this so-called trickle down policy will work. The Bush tax cuts hardly helped in this regard, and corporate America has hardly shared the benefits of paying lower effective tax rates in recent years – tax paid is at the low end of historical ranges.
 
So here is our problem. We can identify a number of imbalances in the system, but until something changes, these imbalances can remain and even become more extreme. Central bankers remain wedded to models that don’t seem to work, and their policies are allowing many imbalances to build to unprecedented levels. Policymakers want us to focus on the shiny veneer that they have created for both the economy and financial markets, and yet they risk creating a system that is arguably more vulnerable than ever before.
 
The financial markets currently are much more focused on the shiny veneer. Equity markets are simply not suffering any downside price action to speak of and volatility is essentially at record low levels. This seems dichotomous with the vulnerabilities in the real economy. We believe that without real change in the way the economy is managed and the way monetary policy is conducted, the system will breakdown at some point.
 
If policymakers get ahead of the curve, and start implementing wide ranging reforms, then the process of tackling the real problems will be a lot less painful. If, however, we remain on the currency policy setting, we fear that we are headed for a great reset that will be painful for the vast majority. At the moment, policymakers are still wedded to their models which even they worry are broken. As a result, we fear that we will have to endure a great reset.
 
The timing of such a reset remains as elusive as ever, and with centrals bankers still trying to inflate everything, it is possible that the reset is years away. However, markets have a history of sucking in the vast majority of players just before the turning point. Anecdotal evidence suggests that in the big picture, more and more investors are getting swept up every month by the most hated bull market in history. All we can say is that the higher the market goes without an underlying improvement in the health of the broad economy, the worse the next bear market will be.
 
Stewart Richardson
RMG Wealth Management

  • Don_Homer likes this

#389 Lonello

Lonello

    General

  • Honorary members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,226 posts
  • Coat of arms
  • Gold Marshal

Posted 12 February 2018 - 11:00 AM

Yes the onepercenters in the end will collapse society. It's unsustainable. The situation has written Revolution all over it. History dictates this always happens when the rich keep enriching themselves at the expense of the many. And it's happening everywhere... the US tops it but just check the Banksters in London for instance.

 

About the US, I just read the new numbers. Deficit: over $1 BILLION a day. Federal deficit was $174 billion for the first four months of fiscal year 2018, $16 billion more than same period last year. That while Trump has not even begun his big time spending, but now comes with a huge plan to enlarge the military... extra budget: the TOTAL amount Putin spends on his army ;) !!! About the only one against: Rand Paul.

 

And rates have only STARTED to rise. And other countries have only STARTED to stop buying US junkbonds (even started selling for leverage).

 

Put on the printing presses!

 

Yes, I'm investing in bullets and Krugerrands. 

I have an idea: if you're getting some more in South Africa, then drop by Ghana and play your game with Max at the spot ;)


Lo

#390 Lonello

Lonello

    General

  • Honorary members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,226 posts
  • Coat of arms
  • Gold Marshal

Posted 25 February 2018 - 11:38 AM

There's no problem here. Move on, move on:

 

DWzEKERVwAI6Puh.jpg

 

An extra ONE TRILLION of U$ debt within ONE YEAR


Lo

#391 Lonello

Lonello

    General

  • Honorary members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,226 posts
  • Coat of arms
  • Gold Marshal

Posted 08 March 2018 - 10:12 AM

DXilPQDW4AEXIZp.jpg


Lo

#392 queenbee1

queenbee1

    Major

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,144 posts
  • Coat of arms
  • Gold Scout

Posted 08 April 2018 - 01:19 AM

This topic has been going for over two years and no collapse. Based on an unsustainable debt model the whole thing should have imploded like a ponzi, but it didn't. Why not? The Central Bankers can string it out as longs as there are buyers of debt.



#393 DarthRemark

DarthRemark

    Lieutenant

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 596 posts
  • Coat of arms
  • Platinum Marshal

Posted 08 April 2018 - 03:46 PM

I choked when W doubled our debt and thought were at the reckoning when he gave us his emergency -$1T gift at the end.  I would never have guessed Barrack "PAYGO" Obama could have gotten away with doubling it again.  As soon is it was clear he didn't really care about fiscal matters I knew we were done.  Yet here we are post Obama, in the wake of Trump and the Republican congress passing one of the biggest spending boondoggles in history, with our debt levels accelerating and few in DC even worked up about it, and life goes on.  Common sense will tell you it can't continue.



#394 The Prof

The Prof

    Colonel

  • NASF Committee
  • 1,515 posts
  • Coat of arms
  • Platinum Scout

Posted 12 April 2018 - 07:41 AM

Yes, and don't forget the $1.5 trillion the Trump tax cuts will add to the debt.  The worst thing about the current deficits is that they are high and growing despite a strong economy.  Now is the time we should be saving up for the inevitable economic downturn.  Imagine what will happen if a recession comes and tax revenues drop, and many people start collecting unemployment.  Obama's biggest deficits were in the first two years of the great recession, but after they improved somewhat.  He could have got us into a much better financial situation if Boehner had agreed and been able to deliver his caucus on the "grand bargain" that would have knocked $4.5 trillion off the debt by way of tax increases and entitlement reform.  Now we are taxing less and spending more, so of course deficits are going back up again. 

 

The biggest buyers of our debt are the Chinese.  What Trump doesn't understand when he complains about the trade deficit with China is that this is precisely what gives them the funds to continue financing our debt.  No trade deficit and the Chinese no longer have a bunch of dollars to park in our treasury bonds.  So expect interest rates to rise and interest on the debt to become more of a burden year by year, crowding out needed investments in infrastructure and many other things that should be priorities.


  • Lonello and scottrussia like this

#395 scottrussia

scottrussia

    Captain

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 800 posts
  • Coat of arms
  • Bronze General

Posted 12 April 2018 - 03:48 PM

I agree with your post Prof.

 

But Obama is the one that went back on his word in regards to the tax deal.  He shook hands and three hours later called Boehner to say he needed even more taxes.

 

Both the Republicans and Democrats in Congress are basically a bunch of idiots - but in this case Boehner reached a deal and the President went back on his word.  And after that basically nothing was done.


  • Lonello likes this

​Spartan Warriors

KING of the Battlefield!!!!!!


#396 queenbee1

queenbee1

    Major

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,144 posts
  • Coat of arms
  • Gold Scout

Posted 20 April 2018 - 05:38 PM

I used to have strong opinions on this subject and politics. I am sure there is enough blame to go around. I am old and tired of caring. I'll leave it up to the younger people. I hope you can save the world from itself. 


  • rgillis783 likes this

#397 Don_Homer

Don_Homer

    Lieutenant

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 616 posts
  • Coat of arms
  • Gold Marshal

Posted 24 April 2018 - 02:52 PM

I used to have strong opinions on this subject and politics. I am sure there is enough blame to go around. I am old and tired of caring. I'll leave it up to the younger people. I hope you can save the world from itself. 

There are plenty of young folks like me that like to hear advice and views from older, experienced people. Our Dutch television has a great quality talking programme (Buitenhof) were old political figures and writers are frequently present. One old political figure is cooperating on a high level with young peope from various ''youngparties'' and they are very devoted also on climate and the future of the world.

 

Anyway financially Trump is trying to get some money with import taxes for especially China. I didnt hear about this for a couple of days so I wonder how the situation is now. No news is good news regarding a possible trade war :)


Molto Bene, Thats a nica Donut !





0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users