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What do you know about the financial world?


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#341 Lonello

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Posted 14 October 2017 - 11:53 AM

Darth, what you said in the other topic is really happening now: https://www.cnbc.com...-us-dollar.html

 

The era of the 'PetroYuan' will mark the end of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. No more PetroDollar. It's huge.

 

 


Lo

#342 queenbee1

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Posted 14 October 2017 - 04:57 PM

Thanks Lo for brightening our day. Get out your popcorn as the show will be like a scary rollercoaster. Some won't make it. Sorry that is supply and demand. While the wealthy live in towers made of gold, the common man is left behind to work the salt mines. There is relatively no upward mobility, no middle class and kids want to sell you the next best app or a story on youtube. College loans force you into the wheel of debt. Credit Cards keep you there. You start to perceive debt obligation as wealth. You have a house that's not worth much more than the day you bought it. If your house appreciated you can't sell and buy a nicer home next door.

 

So many people leverage their social networks to become famous or to influence buying habits. Anything to gain eyeballs. Think of a merchant who sells products to himself. You do not get a nicer life on debt. What you get is to never stop working. Where is your wealth?



#343 Lonello

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Posted 4 weeks ago

Well, someone got wealthy: Assange. His latest tweet is quite funny:

 

 

My deepest thanks to the US government, Senator McCain and Senator Lieberman for pushing Visa, MasterCard, Payal, AmEx, Mooneybookers, et al, into erecting an illegal banking blockade against @WikiLeaks starting in 2010. It caused us to invest in Bitcoin -- with > 50000% return.

 

 

DMHS1IuWsAEAL0a.jpg


Lo

#344 Napoleon 1er

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Posted 4 weeks ago

Hi american finance freaks,

 

Any of you has some explanations why General Electrics share is falling down 26% since begin of this year while dow jones is up 15%?

 

 Does it anticipate another Lehman's brother bankrupcy in a near future?

 

https://imgur.com/a/2BUUE


If you don't know where you go ... you have a lot of chance to arrive elsewhere ...


#345 queenbee1

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Posted 4 weeks ago

Warren Buffett sold 100% of his position in the company’s stock, liquidating more than $300 million in shares. Buffett rarely exits a stock so quickly.

GE’s earnings have been horrible recently. In the most recent quarter, “revenue and other income” dropped 12% to $29.6 billion. Net income was down 52% to $1.4 billion. 

 

I cannot imagine what is happening to the retirees. They just lost 25% and now Flannery wants to cut the only reason the old timers hold this stock. If they cut the dividend on Friday I think you will see another sell off.

Even if GE were to disappear it simply won't matter. GE isn't the problem. It is all the unsecured debt held by the common man in their mutual funds that compile their retirement accounts. If Warren Buffet sold it all, the smart money is out. Does anyone have 150 billion they lost in market cap laying around? You can bet these old employees will go down with the ship just like ENRON, but I don't believe that GE's position is that dire or faces immanent doom like Sears.

 

As I have said when the boomers come for their retirement which is backed by debt there will be a  "The Rude Awakening." When people realize that that projected retirement income program that they signed up for from a Smith Barney rep 30 years ago wasn't a contract to give you all your money bck + 15% interest. They can only give it back until they run out. Money will rush out the door, but there will be no one rushing it back in this time with fresh money.

GE is a symptom of what will one day be known as "The Day of Reckoning." I wonder what GE Capital records look like. Bet there are some cockroaches in that portfolio.

 

Has the World Bank really become the lender of last resort? SDRs will be nothing more than paper. It's all a CONfidence game. What the WB can do is create a level playing field, but is that in their own best interests? 



#346 Napoleon 1er

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Posted 4 weeks ago

Thanks for this very insightful analysis. Yes maybe not a 2nd Lehman's brother case but certainly a "at least double Enron" case. If you have to bet when it will happen would you say 2017 or 2018?

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#347 queenbee1

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Posted 4 weeks ago

Thanks for this very insightful analysis. Yes maybe not a 2nd Lehman's brother case but certainly a "at least double Enron" case. If you have to bet when it will happen would you say 2017 or 2018?

Daniel what am I betting on. The collapse of GE? Jeff Immelt was no Jack Welch to the lifetime employee. He'll walk away with about 200 million in retirement perks and pay and unlike the rank and file who get 6 weeks severance he will retire in style and most likely have access to the private jet fleet, but wait they are doing away with all their jets. Well not exactly. GE isn’t abandoning private aviation altogether. It will keep two small, short-range planes at its aviation unit for quick site visits, and own equity in a few larger jets shared by several owners. Fractional companies, such as Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s NetJets, sell a portion of a jet in exchange for hours of flight. 

 

Those of course lucky enough to survive Welch's layoffs. Welch rode the bull market and Immelt walked into a bear.

This is why I say life is luck and not skill as your ego would believe.

 

Lucky Timing: Welch took over as CEO in late 1981. This was as a 16-year bear market was coming to an end, and on the eve of an historic 18-year bull market. We cannot underestimate how significant that good fortune was in the Welch-is-a-genius narrative. Investors consistently confuse correlation with causation. The good timing doesn’t mean that Welch wasn’t a fine or even a great CEO; the question it raises is whether investors can understand how much of GE’s stock-market success is attributable to his management skills or to the overall rise in the stock market, especially among large capitalization stocks.
 
Consider that during that bull market, GE’s revenue grew 385 percent, but the company’s market value rose 4,000 percent. How did that happen? GE increased earnings during those years and, with stunning regularity, managed to exceed quarterly profit estimates.
 
Immelt came on in the early months of a 13-year bear market (2000-2013). He managed the company through the financial crisis, and that was after taking over just before the company's accounting scandal came to light.
 
Fraud: Which brings us to the regularity of GE’s earnings -- they were a little too regular: After the 2000 stock-market bust, we learned of earnings manipulation and accounting shenanigans. The criticism was that GE Capital acted as an opaque leveraged hedge fund that always could be counted on to help GE beat profit forecasts by a penny. GE eventually settled accounting fraud charges with the Securities and Exchange Commission and paid a $50 million penalty. 
 
Although the accounting manipulation came to light during Immelt's tenure, they likely predated his term. Barron's for example, reported that the company underfunded reinsurance reserves by $9.4 billion, helping to inflate profits from 1997 to 2001. 1  Immelt was in charge of cleaning up the mess left by Welch.
 
Halo effect: By the time he retired in 2000, Welch had become a superstar. To this day there are GE shareholders who refuse to accept he did anything wrong. He was just in the right place at the right time.
 
One other advantage Welch had: At the time, GE owned NBC, including the financial and business news channel CNBC. Welch skillfully managed his image via the channel, invariably getting good press. The anchors even joked about softball questions while interviewing the boss. It not only set the tone for the rest of the press, but it helped drive the legacy of Welch, making him almost bulletproof in the investing public’s imagination. The accounting scandal and unimpressive stock performance made it almost impossible for Immelt to appear on CNBC and crow in the same way that Welch did. GE sold NBC to Comcast Corp. for about $30 billion in 2009.
 
GE will go nowhere soon until the name is no longer of value. Then it will be sold off in pieces. Your day to day life will not be affected unless you work for GE or cater to their needs. The kicker is you put in 30 years and bought stock on the way up. Well guess what. It's not real until you cash out and now some of those dumb retirees have lost 25% and likely going to lose the only thing left of value to stock owners. The dividend.
 
The real question should be "is it safe?" The only one's still holding stock is the dumb money. The pensions and 401ks who don't even know what they are invested in and wouldn't know what to do if they did.
 
Side note: GE could have a hard time selling the two Bombardier Inc. Globals and three Challenger 605s that it owns, said Connie Marrero, an executive vice president at plane broker Freestream Aircraft. There are 15 pre-owned Global XRS aircraft available on the market now, and in the last six months only one has been sold, she said. Eighteen Challenger 605s are on the used market, and the average number of days they’ve been up for sale tops 280.

Those planes won’t move quickly “unless you aggressively price, in which you’re taking a significant loss and hurting the rest of that pre-owned market,” she said.

This is your chance to own your own jet. Selling off these planes is debt reduction 101. They probably owe more that the planes are worth.


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#348 queenbee1

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Posted 4 weeks ago

Also Assange is a tool. He is the conspiracy theorist best friend. Put his money in botcoin due to what he called a banking cartel conspiracy, but it's fine as he made 50,000%. BitCoin that is one of the largest new coined back by.....what you don't know either?

What is concurrency?


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#349 Napoleon 1er

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Posted 4 weeks ago

Daniel what am I betting on. The collapse of GE? Jeff Immelt was no Jack Welch to the lifetime employee. He'll walk away with about 200 million in retirement perks and pay and unlike the rank and file who get 6 weeks severance he will retire in style and most likely have access to the private jet fleet, but wait they are doing away with all their jets. Well not exactly. GE isn’t abandoning private aviation altogether. It will keep two small, short-range planes at its aviation unit for quick site visits, and own equity in a few larger jets shared by several owners. Fractional companies, such as Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s NetJets, sell a portion of a jet in exchange for hours of flight. 

 

Those of course lucky enough to survive Welch's layoffs. Welch rode the bull market and Immelt walked into a bear.

This is why I say life is luck and not skill as your ego would believe.

 

Lucky Timing: Welch took over as CEO in late 1981. This was as a 16-year bear market was coming to an end, and on the eve of an historic 18-year bull market. We cannot underestimate how significant that good fortune was in the Welch-is-a-genius narrative. Investors consistently confuse correlation with causation. The good timing doesn’t mean that Welch wasn’t a fine or even a great CEO; the question it raises is whether investors can understand how much of GE’s stock-market success is attributable to his management skills or to the overall rise in the stock market, especially among large capitalization stocks.
 
Consider that during that bull market, GE’s revenue grew 385 percent, but the company’s market value rose 4,000 percent. How did that happen? GE increased earnings during those years and, with stunning regularity, managed to exceed quarterly profit estimates.
 
Immelt came on in the early months of a 13-year bear market (2000-2013). He managed the company through the financial crisis, and that was after taking over just before the company's accounting scandal came to light.
 
Fraud: Which brings us to the regularity of GE’s earnings -- they were a little too regular: After the 2000 stock-market bust, we learned of earnings manipulation and accounting shenanigans. The criticism was that GE Capital acted as an opaque leveraged hedge fund that always could be counted on to help GE beat profit forecasts by a penny. GE eventually settled accounting fraud charges with the Securities and Exchange Commission and paid a $50 million penalty. 
 
Although the accounting manipulation came to light during Immelt's tenure, they likely predated his term. Barron's for example, reported that the company underfunded reinsurance reserves by $9.4 billion, helping to inflate profits from 1997 to 2001. 1  Immelt was in charge of cleaning up the mess left by Welch.
 
Halo effect: By the time he retired in 2000, Welch had become a superstar. To this day there are GE shareholders who refuse to accept he did anything wrong. He was just in the right place at the right time.
 
One other advantage Welch had: At the time, GE owned NBC, including the financial and business news channel CNBC. Welch skillfully managed his image via the channel, invariably getting good press. The anchors even joked about softball questions while interviewing the boss. It not only set the tone for the rest of the press, but it helped drive the legacy of Welch, making him almost bulletproof in the investing public’s imagination. The accounting scandal and unimpressive stock performance made it almost impossible for Immelt to appear on CNBC and crow in the same way that Welch did. GE sold NBC to Comcast Corp. for about $30 billion in 2009.
 
GE will go nowhere soon until the name is no longer of value. Then it will be sold off in pieces. Your day to day life will not be affected unless you work for GE or cater to their needs. The kicker is you put in 30 years and bought stock on the way up. Well guess what. It's not real until you cash out and now some of those dumb retirees have lost 25% and likely going to lose the only thing left of value to stock owners. The dividend.
 
The real question should be "is it safe?" The only one's still holding stock is the dumb money. The pensions and 401ks who don't even know what they are invested in and wouldn't know what to do if they did.
 
Side note: GE could have a hard time selling the two Bombardier Inc. Globals and three Challenger 605s that it owns, said Connie Marrero, an executive vice president at plane broker Freestream Aircraft. There are 15 pre-owned Global XRS aircraft available on the market now, and in the last six months only one has been sold, she said. Eighteen Challenger 605s are on the used market, and the average number of days they’ve been up for sale tops 280.

Those planes won’t move quickly “unless you aggressively price, in which you’re taking a significant loss and hurting the rest of that pre-owned market,” she said.

This is your chance to own your own jet. Selling off these planes is debt reduction 101. They probably owe more that the planes are worth.

waouw! ... that's a great post ... at least you know something about the finance world. I don't say I agree with all but I'm more concerned about the future than about the past. Enron bankrupcy occured around a famous 9/11. Consequence was huge in particular for the aviation and energy industry. GE collapsing now would be disastrous for the whole economy but we are not yet there ... probably a few months to go. ... now buy some GE put options on thursday and resell them on  tuesday ... you may get back all your lost pension in just 2 working days ...


If you don't know where you go ... you have a lot of chance to arrive elsewhere ...


#350 Lonello

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Posted 3 weeks ago

So much for Trump fixing US's finances:

Budget deficit hits $666 billion, spiking $80 billion spike for year

 

http://registerguard...r-year.html.csp

 

That compared to

 

mich%20stock%20prices.jpg

 

makes a huge crisis looming. What's a big disappointment is that Trump is not draining the swamp at all, but is getting it worse as Joe Average's possibilities to take them on were just killed: https://www.cnbc.com...n-lawsuits.html So much for engaging those Banksters :huh:  -_-  <_<  :(  :angry:


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Lo

#351 Lonello

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Posted 2 weeks ago

The new FED president has his work cut out for him. The FED never stopped printing so if QE lives, how will he start nulling these dollars? He can't. It's TINA or it's dollardefeat (or rather default).

 

DNtd2BQWkAAFE1v.jpg


Lo

#352 Lonello

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Posted 6 days ago

Here's a nice tool to see how fast Xi will catch up with Trump:

 

how fast China’s economy is catching up to the U.S. https://bloom.bg/2AENPQU 

 


Lo

#353 Lonello

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Posted 14 hours ago

Houston, we have a problem. Only astros can save the world now:

 

@RonStoeferle

 

Einhorn: "None Of The Problems From The Financial Crisis Have Been Solved" http://latest.news.i...ave-been-solved

 
In a speech at The Oxford Union in England, Einhorn made it extremely clear just how farcical he believes this market, and world, has become, pointing out that the problems that caused the global financial crisis a decade ago still haven’t been resolved.
 

Lo




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