then the odds of hitting a bomb before the back row are about 37%.

This would be 1 - (33/39)(32/38)(31/27) = 40.3 %. That's one minus the probability that the three first pieces hit are not bombs.

Started by
astros
, May 04 2018 06:26 AM

43 replies to this topic

Posted 05 May 2018 - 08:50 PM

then the odds of hitting a bomb before the back row are about 37%.

This would be 1 - (33/39)(32/38)(31/27) = 40.3 %. That's one minus the probability that the three first pieces hit are not bombs.

Posted 05 May 2018 - 09:17 PM

Or using binomial coefficients: itâ€™s 1/10 * choose(36-n, 6) / choose(39, 6) to hit the flag on the n-th backrow square (counting from n=0: A10=0, ... J10=9)Napoleon, you can compute the answer like this.

(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37) +

(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37)(30/36) +

(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37)(30/36)(29/35) +

(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37)(30/36)(29/35)(28/34) +

(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37)(30/36)(29/35)(28/34)(27/33) +

(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37)(30/36)(29/35)(28/34)(27/33)(26/32) +

(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37)(30/36)(29/35)(28/34)(27/33)(26/32)(25/31) +

(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37)(30/36)(29/35)(28/34)(27/33)(26/32)(25/31)(24/30) +

(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37)(30/36)(29/35)(28/34)(27/33)(26/32)(25/31)(24/30)(23/29) +

(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37)(30/36)(29/35)(28/34)(27/33)(26/32)(25/31)(24/30)(23/29)(22/28) = 0.28834

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Posted 05 May 2018 - 09:38 PM

so the probability that you can capture the flag before hitting a bomb is 28.834%? ... this is ok if all 40 pieces except the flag are positionned randomly but against a top player with non random positionned pieces I guess the probability is much less. Consider that such top player will have a bombed in flag in 60-70 % of the cases, so in more than 60-70% of the cases you have 0% chance to hit the flag before a bomb

Posted 05 May 2018 - 10:19 PM

so the probability that you can capture the flag before hitting a bomb is 28.834%? ... this is ok if all 40 pieces except the flag are positionned randomly but against a top player with non random positionned pieces I guess the probability is much less. Consider that such top player will have a bombed in flag in 60-70 % of the cases, so in more than 60-70% of the cases you have 0% chance to hit the flag before a bomb

But maybe you find a lieut+major or captain+colo combo on A7/A8, so you can stop lottoing early.

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