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Strategy Math Question 2


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#41 The Prof

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Posted 05 May 2018 - 08:50 PM

then the odds of hitting a bomb before the back row are about 37%. 

 

This would be 1 - (33/39)(32/38)(31/27) = 40.3 %.  That's one minus the probability that the three first pieces hit are not bombs.



#42 TemplateRex

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Posted 05 May 2018 - 09:17 PM

Napoleon, you can compute the answer like this.
 
(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37) +
(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37)(30/36) +
(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37)(30/36)(29/35) + 
(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37)(30/36)(29/35)(28/34) +
(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37)(30/36)(29/35)(28/34)(27/33) +
(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37)(30/36)(29/35)(28/34)(27/33)(26/32) +
(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37)(30/36)(29/35)(28/34)(27/33)(26/32)(25/31) + 
(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37)(30/36)(29/35)(28/34)(27/33)(26/32)(25/31)(24/30) + 
(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37)(30/36)(29/35)(28/34)(27/33)(26/32)(25/31)(24/30)(23/29) +
(0.1)(33/39)(32/38)(31/37)(30/36)(29/35)(28/34)(27/33)(26/32)(25/31)(24/30)(23/29)(22/28) = 0.28834

Or using binomial coefficients: it’s 1/10 * choose(36-n, 6) / choose(39, 6) to hit the flag on the n-th backrow square (counting from n=0: A10=0, ... J10=9)
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#43 Napoleon 1er

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Posted 05 May 2018 - 09:38 PM

so the probability that you can capture the flag before hitting a bomb is 28.834%? ... this is ok if all 40 pieces except the flag are positionned randomly but against a top player with non random positionned pieces I guess the probability is much less. Consider that such top player will have a bombed in flag in 60-70 % of the cases, so in more than 60-70% of the cases you have 0% chance to hit the flag before a bomb


If you don't know where you go ... you have a lot of chance to arrive elsewhere ...

#44 TemplateRex

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Posted 05 May 2018 - 10:19 PM

so the probability that you can capture the flag before hitting a bomb is 28.834%? ... this is ok if all 40 pieces except the flag are positionned randomly but against a top player with non random positionned pieces I guess the probability is much less. Consider that such top player will have a bombed in flag in 60-70 % of the cases, so in more than 60-70% of the cases you have 0% chance to hit the flag before a bomb


But maybe you find a lieut+major or captain+colo combo on A7/A8, so you can stop lottoing early.

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