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The Pyramid Lottery


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#41 Major Nelson

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Posted 08 July 2017 - 04:36 PM

I can clearly recall our first ranked match. I said to you hello and good luck and you did not respond. I found that a bit impolite. Then I was winning and you started lottoing and I just wrote "Bravo for the lotto". I admit it was your right to do so, but you cannot exactly blame me for being rude, I did not call you any names or anything. About the same happened when we met again, I told you hello and gl but you didn t say anything. If I insulted you and that s why you didn t want to talk to me I am sorry (really), I did not intend to do so.

Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is.


#42 despy

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Posted 08 July 2017 - 07:04 PM

There is about 0,1% chance (gotta ask our betting man Toby about that) the prize is actually rewarded, but in your chance it's absolutely 0 to show on your bank account as you already have 5 wrongs while you may have none ;)!!

 

I haven't actually checked, but I'm assuming you're basing this on a uniform probability distribution across players? I think any reasonable model cuts down on the number of realistic options significantly - my model for example only allows for 720 possible combinations for the winning 5. I don't have a rigorously accurate confidence interval around that but I'd say around 80%.

 

Assuming everyone's guesses fall in a 'realistic results' bucket of approximately that size, then the chances of payout I suppose would be 5-10%, assuming we get around 40 guesses for each ticket. (80% that we do have 'realistic' results * (40 guesses / 720 options) * 2 tickets).

 

There are some inaccurate assumptions there, like that I overshot the probability of realistic results by saying 80% when I should have separately calculated the 4 cases (64% both realistic, 32% one of the two results is realistic, 4% both are not realistic), or that people all have different guesses and such, but roughly speaking I think 5% should be a decent approximation.

 

Also - regarding the '5 wrongs' - I wasn't sure if you meant because I put the same guesses for T1 and T2, but my understanding was that we only need to get 1 ticket correct to win the prize - please correct me if that's not the case!


Edited by despy, 08 July 2017 - 07:09 PM.


#43 Unladen Swallow

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Posted 08 July 2017 - 07:16 PM

.


Edited by Unladen Swallow, 08 July 2017 - 07:56 PM.

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#44 Henry domerkant

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Posted 08 July 2017 - 07:48 PM

Ticket 1: nortrom, texaspete09, woogomite, Henry domerkant, master yodaa
Ticket 2 : playa1,yangus, napoleon 1er, panther 65,moghedien
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#45 Unladen Swallow

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Posted 08 July 2017 - 07:56 PM

#1

Apex: Hielco

CoreA: Unladen Swallow

CoreC: Texaspete09

BaseR: Don_Homer

BaseT: Panther65

 

#2

Apex: Hielco

CoreA: Wogomite

CoreC: MasterMind

BaseR: MasterYoda

BaseT: Roeczak


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#46 Jakehaar

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Posted 09 July 2017 - 09:09 AM

Ticket #1

Apex: gkaros

Core (Alexandria): Wogomite

Core (Cleopatra): Master Mind

Base (Rameses): Moghedien

Base (Tutankamun): panther65

 

Ticket #2

Apex: Hielco

Core (Alexandria): Napoleon1er

Core (Cleopatra): don mitsos

Base (Rameses): MasterYoda

Base (Tutankamun): Major Nelson


Edited by Jakehaar, 09 July 2017 - 09:10 AM.

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#47 maxroelofs

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Posted 09 July 2017 - 12:57 PM

#1

Apex: Hielco

CoreA: Wogomite

CoreC: Texaspete09

BaseR: Don_Homer

BaseT: Panther65

 

#2

Apex: Hielco

CoreA: Wogomite

CoreC: MasterMind

BaseR: MasterYoda

BaseT: Roeczak


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#48 Lonello

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 06:54 PM

One can always adjust his tickets ofcourse. I suggest we maintain that possibility up until the former last day of Pyramids :D :lol:. According to the results some adjusting is needed although most do very good, like my Major Nelson (despite of that last royal defeat that is).

 

Ticket 1

Apex : playa1
Core A : Unladen Swallow
Core C: texaspete09
Base R: Don Homer
Base T: danis_p_gr

Ticket 2
Apex : Hielco
Core A : TBC
Core C: leppie
Base R: Moghedien
Base T: Major Nelson

 

:ph34r: :ph34r: :ph34r: :ph34r: :D :lol: :D :lol:


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Lo

#49 roeczak

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 08:04 PM

TBC= to be confirmed. I guess you mean constrictor.

Happy that some started picking me at least as a runner up. I hope I'll live up to expectations :)


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#50 leppie

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 09:43 PM

Ticket 1 : hielco,texaspete09, napoleon1er, yoyordy, danis_ p_gr
Ticket2 : gkaros, master mind, THEoptician, masteryoda, major nelson
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#51 Lonello

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Posted 11 July 2017 - 08:46 AM

TBC= to be confirmed. I guess you mean constrictor.

Happy that some started picking me at least as a runner up. I hope I'll live up to expectations :)

Yes, you're coming into my picture too. Win another game and I'll change my tickets again :rolleyes:! I'll do so with whomever B). And TBC is still listed in the list... it used to be me actually, but TC hasn't changed TBC yet so it might be a Black swan too.


Lo

#52 Major Nelson

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Posted 11 July 2017 - 10:51 AM

Next week I ll probably play against roeczak. I guess the outcome of the match is going to affect predictions a lot.

Edited by Major Nelson, 11 July 2017 - 10:51 AM.

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#53 Wogomite

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Posted 11 July 2017 - 11:20 AM

Don't forget 

 

The Pyramid Lottery is a game which tests your powers of prediction.

There are only 3 Rules:

1. You may only pick 5 names on each ticket, You may only enter one ticket of each type.
2. You must make your predictions before Sunday July 16th 23.59GMT
3. You may not at any time after Sunday 16th July 23.59GMT edit your post, even to correct a typo



#54 TheOptician

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 08:46 AM

The sponsors of the Pyramid Lotteryhave brought the deadline forward to submit tickets.

Perhaps they are scared of paying out the prize

It is now Friday July 14th 23.59GMT!

#55 don mitsos

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 09:14 AM

Ticket 1

Nortrom, Zoografos, Constrictor, Roeczak, Moghedien

Ticket 2

gkaros, texaspete09, wogomite, Major Nelson, Don homer


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#56 Losermaker

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 12:51 PM

Ticket 1

Apex : Nortrom
Core A : Constrictor
Core C: texaspete09
Base R: Moghedien
Base T: panther65

Ticket 2
Apex : Hielco
Core A : Wogomite
Core C: josephwhite
Base R: malcom.jansen
Base T: Major Nelson


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#57 TheOptician

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 06:06 PM

Yes, you're coming into my picture too. Win another game and I'll change my tickets again :rolleyes:! I'll do so with whomever B). And TBC is still listed in the list... it used to be me actually, but TC hasn't changed TBC yet so it might be a Black swan too.


This was changed several days ago :-)

#58 Lonello

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 08:03 AM

OK but on

 

the full line-up here: http://i.imgur.com/p8ftMXZ.jpg

it wasn't and I checked the hyroglieves but there's TBC too so can TBC still win the race, TheOptician B) :rolleyes:


Lo

#59 TheOptician

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 08:49 AM

There is a line which contains only 3 letters in the Alexandria hieroglyphs, but it isn't TBC ;-)

Ill update the old link in this thread.

#60 TheOptician

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 09:03 PM

Just over 24 hours remain until the deadline for Lottery Tickets.

 

Currently 24 players have entered

 

 

Don't miss out on this fabulous chance to win a small fortune.

 

 

Summon your predictive powers (with a quick check to see you're not backing a horse that has lost its first three races) and stake your claim in the Pyramid Lottery


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