I wopuld go for:
.... F7-G7 red captures 1 scout and corners col
then if blue moves major or 2nd scout red just make sure blue cannot pass his scout in red's field, so assume blue understands this and plays:
then if blue makes E7 - D7 E8-D8 if blue makes E7-F7 leave it cornered like this and start to move spy D2-D3
red shall get a win his tactic shall be exchanging gen for col, exchganging majors, exchanging last scouts till he remains with spy against marsh with 2 square rules at his advantage. To get it he shall possibly make first a vertical scout move when blue would move his marsh.
...still I believe this situation on the board can never happen. How can blue let red threatening both his col and scout on red's turn while all pieces in particular marsh is known? What was the last move of blue before red's turn?
You have the same line of reasoning. I had been thinking of
1. F7xG7 A7xA6
2. A1xA10 D9-E9
3. G7-F7 E9-E8 (since blue has 2SQR advantage, red can't take col and lose gen)
4. D2-D3 F8-F9 (swing the colonel around, using the marsh to block the gen)
5. D3-D4 F9-E9
6. D4-E4 E9-D9
7. E4-E5 D9-D8
8. E5-E6 D8-D7 and if red enters E7, the blue marsh will take, and if the spy retreats the colonel passes to the flag, so a blue win.
So red needs to make a vertical scout move to get the 2SQR advantage
1. F7xG7 A7xA6
2. A1-A9 and now blue can't pass the colonel through the center lane and the red spy/gen will push the blue marsh away from the flag. This variation is a red win.
I haven't analyzed yet what happens if the blue major retreats to the center instead.
Edited by TemplateRex, 10 March 2018 - 01:47 PM.