You continue to impress me Rex. I think you are right, if both players play optimally it's a draw. At least my proposal as to how Napoleon 1er could have won earlier was correct, right?
These puzzles this week have changed my outlook on the game. I used to think that the maneuvering in Stratego was fairly straightforward (no multiple captures, no promotion) compared to chess or draughts, but the puzzles by Nortrom have convinced me that there are so many subtleties that are very easy to overlook. Getting the crucial squares/open files and ranks, flipping the 2SQ advantage, self-sacrifices to clear paths etc.
Yes, your variations were correct AFAICS. Very nice idea that you found with getting the 2SQ advantage by a classic 3-move shuffle (this theme is used in chess and draughts as well) for the scout on A4 vs. captain F3. First forcing the major to the 8th row is key here, since it removes the major one more square away from the flag. Keeping the 9-th row for the major is what led me to investigate the E7-E8 defense instead.
And BTW, Napoleon made what could have been a crucial mistake playing the sergeant E2-E3, blocking an open rank. Giving away 2 tempi should not have been done so quickly.
Which brings me to another pet peeve of mine: many people play endgames way too quickly. Why leave almost 4 minutes on the clock when there are only a few pieces left and you need to find a way to the flag or some repetition? Just use 2 or 3 minutes to calculate all the variations to the end. Even if you can't find a forced win right away, you still get 15 seconds per move to finish the game. It's just silly to lose with 3 minutes left that could have been used earlier to save a game. People say "every piece count", but "every second counts too!".